SECRECY NEWS
from the FAS Project on Government Secrecy
Volume 2016, Issue No. 83
October 11, 2016

Secrecy News Blog: http://fas.org/blogs/secrecy/

AMOUNT OF CLASSIFICATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN

One of the more encouraging changes in classification policy over the past decade has been the sharp reduction in the number of decisions to classify information reported each year by executive branch agencies.

In 2005 there were a total of 258,633 original classification actions, or new secrets, reported; in 2015, there were said to be 53,425 such actions. (See "Number of New Secrets in 2015 Near Historic Low," Secrecy News, July 29, 2016).

Despite the misleading precision with which they are reported, these numbers -- which are derived from agency reports to the Information Security Oversight Office and published in ISOO annual reports -- were understood to be estimates, not precise tabulations.

Now, however, a new report from the State Department Inspector General suggests that State's reporting of its classification activity to ISOO may not only be imprecise, but actually inaccurate and incorrect.

The Inspector General "found shortcomings with the count of classification decisions" reported to ISOO. The estimates that were generated were not validated, and they did not reflect the full scope of State Department classification activity.

So, "For example, classified documents created within the Office of the Secretary were not included" in the survey, the IG said.

See Compliance Follow-up Review of the Department of State's Implementation of Executive Order 13526, Classified National Security Information, Office of Inspector General, Department of State, September 2016:

The bottom line, the IG said, is that reported classification totals "will not accurately represent all of the Department's classification decisions because not all decisions are being identified or sampled as part of the Department's self-inspection program."

William Cira, the acting director of the Information Security Oversight Office, said he was not surprised by the Inspector General findings, and not especially troubled.

He recalled that ISOO itself stated in its 2009 report that "the data reported has not truly reflected the changing ways agencies have generated and used classified information in the electronic environment."

"It has been recognized, even long before we asked the agencies to include the electronic environment, that an actual count is not feasible," Mr. Cira added. "The sampling and extrapolation technique described in that report has been in widespread use for a long time."

"It is actually one of the suggested methods that we impart to the agencies when we send out our data collection request each year. Since FY 2009, ISOO has asked agencies to do their best to estimate the volume of all classified products in the electronic environment."

"We have always acknowledged that this would not be easy. We do ask them [agencies] to estimate, we do suggest that they sample and extrapolate, and we acknowledge that in almost all cases they will not have the resources to conduct a scientific survey as that is defined by professional statisticians."

"This method may seem crude but we recognize that almost none of agency data collectors have trained statisticians to call upon, and there is no expectation that they hire one." Still, "If the Dept. of State OIG believes that the Office of the Secretary should be included that is a welcome suggestion."

"The one thing for certain is that this method has been consistently applied across many agencies for a very long time," Mr. Cira said.

In other words, if the collection method is crude, at least it is consistent in its crudeness, and so perhaps some rough trend information may still be discerned within the noise.

But without real quantitative and qualitative clarity, effective management of agency classification activity will be beyond reach.

SECURITY CLEARANCE REFORM GETS "RE-BASELINED"

The executive branch is reconfiguring its approach to vetting individuals for access to sensitive information and granting them security clearances in an attempt to modernize and improve its procedures, according to a new quarterly report.

"The Insider Threat and Security Clearance Reform (ITSCR) Cross Agency Priority (CAP) Goals have been re-baselined so that they are aligned with the new enterprise-wide focus . . . and its four work streams (Trusted Workforce, Modern Vetting, Secure and Modern Mission-Capable IT, and Continuous Performance Improvement) for modernizing the SSC [security, suitability/fitness, and credentialing] mission over the next five years."

See the Quarterly Progress Update on Insider Threat and Security Clearance Reform, FY2016 Quarter 3, September 2016:

Translated out of bureaucratic jargon, this statement... still remains obscure and hard to understand. But at the least, it implies a determination that existing arrangements are unsatisfactory and that they require adjustment.

Among other steps, the latest Quarterly Update says that by December of this year, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence will "Establish a policy that requires the national security population to report information of security concern to the proper authorities in a timely manner." The exact nature of such a requirement and its likely effect on "the national security population" remain to be seen.

Though security clearance "reform" of some kind has been underway for many years, the recent arrest of former NSA contractor Harold T. Martin III on suspicion of theft and retention of classified information suggests that room for improvement still exists. ("NSA case highlights growing concerns over insider threats" by Christian Davenport, Washington Post, October 6).

A VACANCY ON THE PRESIDENTIAL TICKET, & MORE FROM CRS

A new report from the Congressional Research Service considers: "What would happen in 2016 if a candidate for President or Vice President were to die or leave the ticket any time between the national party conventions and the November 8 election day? What would happen if this occurred during presidential transition, either between election day and the December 19, 2016, meeting of the electoral college; or between December 19 and the inauguration of the President and Vice President on January 20, 2017?"

See Presidential Elections: Vacancies in Major-Party Candidacies and the Position of President-Elect, October 6, 2016:

It was a pleasant surprise to read in the Food section of the Washington Post last week that a new breed of perennial wheat called Kernza has now become commercially available. ("Perennial wheat is an ecologist's dream. Soon it may be what's for dinner" by Jane Black, October 2).

Perennial food grains have been pursued for decades by researchers at The Land Institute in Salina, Kansas because, unlike crops that must be annually resown, perennial grains can help to strengthen soil over time rather than depleting it.

But this kind of research into sustainable agriculture is not on the research agenda of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

According to the Congressional Research Service, some critics "have argued that some of USDA's agricultural research portfolio duplicates private sector activities on major crops, including corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton. They argue that funding should be reallocated to basic, noncommercial research to benefit the public good that is not addressed through private efforts." See Agricultural Research: Background and Issues, October 6, 2016:

Other new and updated reports from the Congressional Research Service include the following.

Presidential Transition Act: Provisions and Funding, updated October 5, 2016:

Paris Climate Change Agreement to Enter into Force November 4, CRS Insight, October 5, 2016:

Should the U.S. Relinquish Its Authority Over the Internet Domain Name System?, CRS Insight, October 5, 2016:

Social Security Administration (SSA): FY2017 Appropriations and Recent Trends, October 5, 2016:

Medicare: Insolvency Projections, updated October 5, 2016:

State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs: FY2017 Budget and Appropriations, updated October 5, 2016:

U.S. Foreign Assistance to Latin America and the Caribbean: Trends and FY2017 Appropriations, October 6, 2016:

U.S. Invokes Visa Sanctions under Section 243(d) of the INA for the First Time in 15 Years, CRS Legal Sidebar, October 5, 2016:

******************************

Secrecy News is written by Steven Aftergood and published by the Federation of American Scientists.

The Secrecy News blog is at:
      http://fas.org/blogs/secrecy/

To SUBSCRIBE to Secrecy News, go to:
     http://fas.org/sgp/news/secrecy/subscribe.html

To UNSUBSCRIBE, go to:
      http://fas.org/sgp/news/secrecy/unsubscribe.html

OR email your request to saftergood@fas.org

Secrecy News is archived at:
      http://fas.org/sgp/news/secrecy/index.html

SUPPORT the FAS Project on Government Secrecy with a donation here:
      https://fas.org/donate/