SECRECY NEWS
from the FAS Project on Government Secrecy
Volume 2017, Issue No. 6
January 23, 2017

Secrecy News Blog: https://fas.org/blogs/secrecy/

U.S. FACES EVOLVING THREAT NETWORKS, DOD SAYS

Transnational threat networks pose increasingly complex challenges to U.S. interests, according to a new doctrinal publication from the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

"Networked threats are highly adaptable adversaries with the ability to select a variety of tactics, techniques, and technologies and blend them in unconventional ways to meet their strategic aims," the document said. See Countering Threat Networks, Joint Publication 3-25, December 21, 2016:

The new DoD publication is focused on networks that are engaged, often clandestinely, in violent or criminal activity, and that may challenge U.S. forces or undermine national or regional stability.

However, the description of threat networks lends itself to -- and, in light of current events, almost invites -- a broader reading applicable to political disruption of other types.

"These threat networks jeopardize the stability and sovereignty of nation-states, including the US. They tend to operate among civilian populations and in the seams of society and may have components that are recognized locally as legitimate parts of society," the document said.

"Collecting information and intelligence on these networks, their nodes, links, and affiliations is challenging, and analysis of their strengths, weaknesses, and centers of gravity (COGs) differs greatly from traditional nation-state adversaries."

"Understanding a threat network's motivation and objectives is required to effectively counter its efforts. The issues that drive a network and its ideology should be clearly understood. For example, they may be driven by grievances, utopian ideals, power, revenge over perceived past wrongs, greed, or a combination of these."

"Many threat networks rely on family and tribal bonds when recruiting for the network's inner core. These members have been vetted for years and are almost impossible to turn."

"Threat networks... can be composed of criminal, insurgent or terrorist organizations, each of which may have different motivations for operating outside of societal norms. [But] they can also be government entities, legitimate legal organizations, or anyone who opposes the achievement of friendly objectives."

"Transnational criminal organizations are self-perpetuating associations of individuals that operate to obtain power, influence, monetary and/or commercial gains, wholly or in part by illegal means."

"Transnational criminal networks are not only expanding operations, but they are also diversifying activities, creating a convergence of threats that has become more complex, volatile, and destabilizing. These networks also threaten US interests by forging alliances with corrupt elements of national governments and using the power and influence of those elements to further their criminal activities. In some cases, national governments exploit these relationships to further their interests to the detriment of the US," the DoD document said.

INNOVATION IN FOREIGN ARMY SYSTEMS, & MORE FROM CRS

Several nations are independently pursuing development of ground combat weapon systems that are comparable or superior to their U.S. Army counterparts, says a new report from the Congressional Research Service.

Accordingly, there is a "possibility that in the not-too-distant future, foreign armored vehicle design and capabilities could surpass existing U.S. systems."

Close study of those developments should help guide current U.S. modernization efforts, wrote CRS military analyst Andrew Feickert, and "may also lead to a conclusion that an entirely new combat vehicle will be required to address current and potential future threats."

CRS did not conclude that there has been a "very sad depletion of our military," as President Trump asserted in his inauguration speech. Nor does the CRS report present an argument that additional investment in ground combat systems would actually be the best use of defense budget dollars in particular, or of taxpayer dollars in general.

See Selected Foreign Counterparts of U.S. Army Ground Combat Systems and Implications for Combat Operations and Modernization, January 18, 2017:

Other new and updated reports from the Congressional Research Service include the following.

Overview of U.S. Sanctions Regimes on Russia, CRS Insight, January 11, 2017:

The Islamic State and U.S. Policy, updated January 18, 2017:

U.S.-Mexican Security Cooperation: the Merida Initiative and Beyond, updated January 18, 2017:

Rescission of the Wet-Foot/Dry-Foot Policy as to Aliens from Cuba Raises Legal Questions, CRS Legal Sidebar, January 18, 2017:

Unaccompanied Alien Children: An Overview, updated January 18, 2017:

Temporary Protected Status: Current Immigration Policy and Issues, updated January 17, 2017:

What Can the New President Do About the Effective Dates of Pending Regulations?, CRS Legal Sidebar, January 18, 2017:

Finding Medicare Enrollment Statistics, January 12, 2017:

U.S. Manufacturing in International Perspective, updated January 18, 2017:

An Overview of the Housing Finance System in the United States, January 18, 2017:

EPA's Mid-Term Evaluation of Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards, CRS Insight, January 17, 2017:

Domestic Food Assistance: Summary of Programs, updated January 11, 2017:

Climate Change Litigation Update: "Children's Crusade" Case Against the United States Goes Forward, CRS Legal Sidebar, January 17, 2017:

Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA): Resources for Frequently Asked Questions, updated January 17, 2017:

Digital Trade and U.S. Trade Policy, updated January 13, 2017:

Health Benefits for Members of Congress and Designated Congressional Staff, updated January 13, 2017:

AN OUTGOING WAVE OF DISCLOSURE

In the final days and weeks of the Obama Administration, intelligence officials took steps to promote increased transparency and made several noteworthy disclosures of intelligence policy records.

On January 9, DNI James Clapper signed a new version of Intelligence Community Directive 208, now titled "Maximizing the Utility of Analytic Products." The revised directive notably incorporates new instructions to include transparency as a consideration in preparing intelligence analyses.

Thus, one way of "maximizing utility," the directive said, is to "Demonstrate Transparency":

"Analytic products should follow the Principles of Intelligence Transparency for the Intelligence Community, which are intended to facilitate IC decisions on making information publicly available in a manner that enhances public understanding of intelligence activities, while continuing to protect information, including sources and methods, when disclosure would harm national security. The degree to which transparency will be applied depends upon the nature and type of the analytic product."

Interestingly, the revised directive was issued without any public notice or press release. Though unclassified and published online, it appears to be genuinely inner-directed rather than a mere public relations gesture.

* * *

The Central Intelligence Agency posted more than 12 million declassified pages (930,000 documents) from its CREST archive on the CIA website. The CREST (CIA Records Search Tool) database had previously been accessible only to those researchers who visited the National Archives in person.

By making the records broadly available online, their utility and the benefits of their declassification are multiplied many times over.

Release of the CREST database had been sought by researchers and advocates for many years. It was advocated internally by the CIA Historical Review Panel and the Panel's chair, Prof. Robert Jervis. It was recently the subject of a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit by the Muckrock news site.

Joseph Lambert, CIA Director of Information Management, said that online access to CREST recently became possible only after technical limitations on the CIA website were "dissolved." He said that the quality of the online search engine would not be inferior to that on the original CREST system.

One experienced researcher disputed that. Based on an initial survey, "I think it is safe to say that the level of functionality for searching is less than CREST," the researcher said. From his perspective, "the losses are very significant." A detailed comparison was not immediately available.

In any case, Mr. Lambert said that newly declassified records, and less redacted versions of previously redacted records, would be periodically added to the online collection.

* * *

Also last week, the CIA released updated guidelines for the collection, retention and dissemination of U.S. person information. The Agency also posted declassified documents concerning its interrogation program, released in response to FOIA litigation by the ACLU.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence released an updated report on counterterrorism strikes outside of areas of active hostilities, a report on equal opportunity and diversity in the Intelligence Community, and a paper on the Domestic Approach to National Intelligence describing the organization of U.S. intelligence. ODNI published the remainder of the captured bin Laden documents that have been declassified, the third annual SIGINT progress report, and three semi-annual reports on compliance with Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.

* * *

With the exception of records released in response to litigation or legislation, these moves and these disclosures were voluntary. They seem to represent a realization that increased transparency, though occasionally awkward in the short term, serves the long-term interests of U.S. intelligence.

"Today, whether you are a U.S. citizen or a non-U.S. citizen abroad, you now have more confidence about what the United States does and does not do with regard to signals intelligence collection because of steps this Administration has taken to provide an unprecedented level of transparency regarding these activities," according to an Obama Administration report on privacy that was briefly published on the White House web site last week.

This posture of increased transparency, if not these specific disclosures, can be easily reversed or abandoned. But an infrastructure of disclosure has been established, along with a pattern of releases, that will generate expectations for the future and a certain momentum that may yet be sustained and developed.

******************************

Secrecy News is written by Steven Aftergood and published by the Federation of American Scientists.

The Secrecy News blog is at:
      https://fas.org/blogs/secrecy/

To SUBSCRIBE to Secrecy News, go to:
     https://fas.org/sgp/news/secrecy/subscribe.html

To UNSUBSCRIBE, go to:
      https://fas.org/sgp/news/secrecy/unsubscribe.html

OR email your request to saftergood@fas.org

Secrecy News is archived at:
      https://fas.org/sgp/news/secrecy/index.html

SUPPORT the FAS Project on Government Secrecy with a donation here:
      https://fas.org/donate/