SECRECY NEWS
from the FAS Project on Government Secrecy
Volume 2018, Issue No. 16
March 8, 2018

Secrecy News Blog: https://fas.org/blogs/secrecy/

DOCUMENTING THE WEAPONS SYSTEMS EVALUATION GROUP

The National Declassification Center is preparing to release a set of newly declassified records concerning a little-known Pentagon advisory group called the Weapons Systems Evaluation Group (WSEG) that operated from 1948 to 1976.

The purpose of the WSEG was "to provide rigorous, unprejudiced and independent analyses and evaluations of present and future weapons systems under probable future combat conditions-- prepared by the ablest professional minds, military and civilian, and the most advanced analytical methods that can be brought to bear," according to its founding 1948 directive.

For at least part of its existence, the WSEG "occupied a preeminent position as the principal analytical support agency of its kind at the upper echelons of the DoD," an official 1979 history of the organization said.

An overview of the upcoming release of declassified WSEG records was posted yesterday by Alex Daverede of the National Declassification Center.

The records include a broad range of topics on weapons systems and war fighting in the early cold war context, only a portion of which will actually be made public. One report, that apparently will remain classified, is entitled "Capabilities of Atomic Weapons for the Attack of Troop Targets." Other studies address air defense, biological warfare, Soviet military systems, and more.

"I should be done with the declassification work by the end of the month, perhaps sooner," Mr. Daverede said yesterday.

"This was not a big project for us--only 18 Hollinger [document storage] boxes," he said. "Ten boxes hold documents that retained their classification after they were re-reviewed, so actual pages released would probably be closer to 5K pages. Unfortunately there are multiple copies of each document, so in terms of unique pages declassified we are looking at considerably less than 5K. The up side is that the whole series had been exempt before we re-examined it, so I feel pretty good about getting some records of this obscure organization out on the street."

Some of the war-fighting topics considered by the WSEG were also on the mind of Daniel Ellsberg during some of the same years, as he discussed in his recent book The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner. The book has been widely and favorably reviewed in Slate, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the New York Review of Books, and Arms Control Today (by Stan Norris of FAS), among others.

Ellsberg did not mention the WSEG in his book, but the WSEG was well aware of him.

There was a "period of JCS retrenchment in SIOP-related studies after the Ellsberg incident," according to the 1979 WSEG history. That is, there was a decline in nuclear targeting studies requested by the Joint Chiefs of Staff from the WSEG following Ellsberg's release of the Pentagon papers.

SUPPRESSED AFGHANISTAN WAR DATA NOW PUBLISHED

In January, the Department of Defense ordered the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) not to publish certain data on areas of Afghanistan that were held by insurgents.

"This development is troubling for a number of reasons, not least of which is that this is the first time SIGAR has been specifically instructed not to release information marked 'unclassified' to the American taxpayer," the SIGAR said in its January 2018 report to Congress.

But the Department of Defense soon reversed course, saying it was an error to withhold that information.

Last week, the SIGAR published an addendum to its January report that provided the previously suppressed data. In addition, a detailed control map and the underlying data for each of Afghanistan's 407 districts were declassified and published. See Addendum to SIGAR's January 2018 Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, February 26, 2018.

The basic thrust of the new data is that Afghan government control of the country is at its lowest reported level since December 2015, while insurgency control is at its highest.

"The percentage of districts under insurgent control or influence has doubled since 2015," the SIGAR addendum said.

US STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES, AND MORE FROM CRS

The Congressional Research Service recently updated its report on US nuclear weapons and programs. See U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces: Background, Developments, and Issues by Amy F. Woolf, March 6, 2018.

That is also the subject of a new survey prepared by Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris of the Federation of American Scientists. See United States nuclear forces, 2018, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 5, 2018:

Other new and updated reports from the Congressional Research Service include the following.

Joint Resolution Seeks to End U.S. Support for Saudi-led Coalition Military Operations in Yemen, CRS Insight, March 5, 2018:

Iraq: In Brief, March 5, 2018:

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean Focus on the Politics of Energy, CRS Insight, March 1, 2018:

Qatar: Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy, updated March 1, 2018:

Millennium Challenge Corporation, updated March 7, 2018:

Material Support for Terrorism Is Not Always an "Act of International Terrorism," Second Circuit Holds, CRS Legal Sidebar, March 5, 2018:

So, Now Can Menachem Zivotofsky Get His Passport Reissued to Say "Israel"?, CRS Legal Sidebar, March 1, 2018:

Responding to the Opioid Epidemic: Legal Developments and FDA's Role, CRS Legal Sidebar, March 6, 2018:

Banking Policy Issues in the 115th Congress, updated March 7, 2018:

How Hard Should It Be To Bring a Class Action?, CRS Legal Sidebar, March 7, 2018:

SOCIAL MEDIA IN SECURITY CLEARANCE INVESTIGATIONS

Members of Congress are urging the executive branch to update and expand the security clearance process by examining the social media presence of individuals who are being considered for a security clearance for access to classified information, which is now being done only on a limited and uneven basis.

"I put more effort into understanding who my interns are" than the security clearance process does in granting clearances, said Senate Intelligence Committee chairman Sen. Richard Burr at a hearing yesterday. "You go to the areas that you learn the most about them -- social media is right at the top of the list."

"I can't envision anyone coming into the office that you haven't thoroughly checked out everything that they've said online," Sen. Burr said.

On Tuesday, the House of Representatives passed a bill to promote the use of social media in security clearance investigations.

"It may be hard to believe, but the Federal Government often fails to conduct a simple internet search on individuals before they are trusted with a security clearance," said Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).

"Publicly available social media is one of the best ways to understand an individual's interests and intentions, but our investigatory process still focuses on interviewing the applicant's family, friends, and neighbors," he said.

In fact, then-Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper issued a directive in 2016 authorizing -- but not requiring -- the use of social media in security clearance background investigations. See Security Executive Agent Directive 5 on Collection, Use, and Retention of Publicly Available Social Media Information in Personnel Security Background Investigations and Adjudications, May 12, 2016.

But the practice has apparently been adopted unevenly and on a limited basis.

"For example, the Army initiated a pilot program that found that while checking social media is a valuable tool, it can be costly and may raise some legal issues," said Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA).

The bill passed by the House this week would require the OMB to report on current use of social media in background investigations, legal impediments to such use, the results of any pilot programs, and options for widespread implementation.

The bill "is a much needed first step in modernizing federal security clearance background investigations," said a House Committee report on the bill. "In recent years, there have been several cases in which federal contractor employees with security clearances leaked classified information after previously sharing suspicious posts on publicly available social media sites."

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Secrecy News is written by Steven Aftergood and published by the Federation of American Scientists.

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